However, persistent nutritional gaps and environmental mounting pressures reveal an upcoming complex route, according to a new study by the United Nations Food and Agriculture (Fao) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – an International Influential Policy Forum.
THE Agricultural prospects 2025-2034Published Tuesday, projects a 6% increase in world consumption per capita of animal source food by 2034 – beef, pork, poultry, fish, dairy products and other animal products.
The trend is more pronounced in countries with lower intermediate income, where consumption should increase by 24%, far exceeding the global average.
“” These projections indicate better nutrition for many people in developing countries »» said Quonggyu, director general of FAO.
Agricultural prospects 2025-2034
Increase in income, better diets – but not for everyone
THE The increase in consumption in average income economies is largely allocated to the increase in available income, to the evolution of food preferences and urbanization. In these countries, the daily contribution per capita of animal foods should reach 364 kilocalories, exceeding the reference index of 300 kcal.
At the same time, Consumption in low -income countries will remain low – reaching only 143 kcal per day, less than half of the amount deemed necessary for healthy food – highlighting striking inequalities in access to nutrient -rich diets and the challenges to make sure everyone is safe.
Mr. Quar has urged greater efforts to ensure that people in the least returned countries also benefit from an improvement in nutrition and food security.
Expanding production but increasing emissions
To meet growing demand, Global production of agriculture and fish should increase by 14% in the next decadeWidely motivated by productivity gains in intermediate income nations.
The production of meat, dairy and egg products should grow by 17%, while total livestock stocks should develop by 7%.
However, these gains have an environmental cost: Direct emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) of agriculture should increase by six% by 2034, despite improving the intensity of emissions.
As production becomes more effective, emissions generated per unit of production will decrease, but the overall footprint will always increase unless additional measures are taken.
Agricultural prospects 2025-2034
Other key results
- Cereal yields to grow by 0.9% per year, the harvested area extending at only 0.14% per year – half the pace of the last decade
- By 2034, 40% of cereals will go directly to human consumption, to 33% of animal food, and the rest for biofuels and industry
- The demand for biofuels should increase by 0.9% per year, led by Brazil, India and Indonesia
- The flock of beef of sub -Saharan Africa plans to grow by 15%, although productivity remains only a tenth of North America
- India and Southeast Asia will stimulate 39% of global consumption growth by 2034; China’s share fell to 13%, compared to 32%
- High income countries to see a drop in fat per capita and sweeteners due to health trends and policy changes
A win-win: more food, less emissions
The report describes a Scenario in which food improves for everyone, and agricultural emissions are reduced to seven percent below current levels by 2034.
The achievement of this double result would require significant investments to improve productivity, in parallel with a general adoption of existing low -emission technologies such as precision agriculture, the improvement of food for livestock animals and the hierarchy of nutritional production.
Future progress will depend on a mixture of political coordination, technological innovation and targeted investments – especially in countries where the gap between demand and nutritional value is striking.
“” We have the tools to end hunger and stimulate global food security »» said Mathias Cormann, OECD secretary general.
“Well coordinated policies are necessary to keep the global food markets open, while promoting long -term productivity improvements and sustainability in the agriculture sector.”
Central role for world trade
The prospects also reiterates the importance of trade, given that 22% of all the calories consumed will have crossed international borders by 2034.
“” International trade will remain essential to the world food sector“, Underlined the report.
“” Multilateral cooperation and agricultural trade based on rules are essential to facilitate these trade flowsBalance food deficits and surpluses across countries, stabilize prices and improve food security, nutrition and environmental sustainability. »»
Publicado anteriormente en Almouwatin.
